Dallas Fort Worth Market Commentary the 2008 Roller Coaster was Anything but a Thrill
- Home Builders are Raising Prices to Reflect Higher Costs
- Why May It Be the Best Time to Buy a New Home?
Home Builders are Raising Prices to Reflect Higher Costs
January 2008 - September 2008
Accurate information is merely the result of exposing the facts. The present market, as hard as it may seem to get a good reading, nonetheless is throwing out facts, but is anyone listening? With national prices slowly on the rise over the last 4 months we may be seeing the slow, but inevitable market direction change that will signal an improving housing market. One thing is for certain, nothing ever stays the same.
Over the last 3 years rentals, especially apartments have been on the rise in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex. I would guess an easy 20% increase in apartment unit cost during this time frame and in some instances up nearly a one third and climbing. The apartment specials we use to advertise daily at Apartments2Go.com back in 2005 are now all history. With the record number of foreclosures nationwide and homeowners in financial trouble, apartments continue to be in demand and demand fuels rising rents.
In the meantime, back at the not so OK Corral, home prices have been flat or going in the opposite direction and this has price trapped numerous homeowners who need to sell. The major reason for lower home prices is due to the higher than normal supply of foreclosures. Unlike rising monthly rent costs from apartments, home prices in many instances are below 2005 levels and this in spite of all the inflation since 2005.
With many nationwide home builders now struggling to stay in business and cutting crazy deals to move inventory, existing homes sales in much of the DFW Metroplex are faced with bone crushing competition and this has help to keep home prices down, at least for now. I expect 2 - 4 major nationwide home builders to go Bankrupt before the end of 2009 along with a score of small local builders before the U.S. housing market stabilizes. With less builders and material suppliers, prices will rise to reflect the true cost of housing. New home pricing have already begun to rise.
September 2008 - March 2009
Why Now May Be the Best Time to Buy a New Home
A paradigm shift has hit the market. September might go down in history as black September, when the rescue and bail out bomb shell hit the world economy.
Everything written about early 2008 almost does not apply in the "Post September 2008" economy.
Deflation is ramped! All the inflationary pricing pressures have subsided. We are now watching a price collapse. From $4 per gallon to 1.50 a gallon. All commodities have peaked and are now in world wide retreat.
What does this mean? Well lower prices is what it will mean, and for how long is anyone's guess, but some of the best buys that I have seen are occuring now and while most buyers are sitting on their hands, smart buyers are getting deals that simply won't be around when buyers start to re-engage.
Are you going to wait for the "all clear" to be sounded by CNN?
INTEREST RATES ARE FALLING!
The Fed has pronounced "inflation" dead. At least for now. Rates are dropping like never before. I anticipate in just a few short weeks that we will see intrest rates go below 5% for the first time in 50 years. This SHOULD have an effect on falling real estate prices because as more people enter the market, this will inevitably drive real estate prices higher.
INTEREST RATE UPDATE JANUARY 2010
We have now seen the down cycle the entry point and now the exit point for low interest rates. Rates are clearly set to rise as Emergency TARP and bail out funds are fully expensed. Once the Fed stops buying mortgage backed securities rates are going to rise and experts predict this will happen in March - April time frame.
All Arrows are Pointing to Higher Costs, but a pause first
2008 has turned out to be a real curve ball. The traditional idea that inflation would continue to push all tangible values higher hit a "credit crisis," a liquidity crisis, a hedge fund crisis, a home builder crisis and a car manufacturer crisis, not to mention the HUGE crisis on Main Street. This greatly reduced the amount of money in people's hands and the lack of consumer activity has acted to depress prices. However, experts warn this is only a temporary phenomenon and to expect inflation to reemerge in 2009 or 2010, but we'll see.
I want to stop it there. I think we will see a bounce and a price stabilizing period and then a slow rise in the cost of commodities. There is always a chance we will see a rapid reemergence of inflation, especially if the EXPERTS are correct that $150 barrel of oil is inevitable - again.
Here are some reasons why you should consider buying now in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex:
- Long term inflationary pressures are still a concern and prices right now are down and in some instances way down.
- Many economists are predicting future rising interest rates to battle inflation. Just look to the late 70's and early 80's to find out how the Fed's fights inflation, and then start to connect the dots and you will see why there will be a growing pressure for interest rates to rise. Rates are rising and predicted to rise further:
- Home prices are now significantly undervalued in the DFW Metroplex (CNN MONEY quoted 30% undervalued as of March 2008), and that was before any additional price erosion since this report.
- In 2007 DFW ranked #2 in U.S. job growth. (population growth means housing growth and demand)
- DFW ranks as the No.1 population growth market in the U.S.A. for 2006-2011 with an expected population increase of 630,000
- DFW is expected to grow from 6 million to approximately 8.5 million by 2030. Sounds like a good place to be owning a home right about now. Don't be the last one to realize you made a serious timing mistake. There are great home buying opportunities in the market now. Locking in a low price and low rate will lock in your monthly living expenses for years to come. If you are looking to take advantage now, you'll find that ARG has the knowledge and experience to help you find the right home. Home builders like Highland Homes have introduced an incredible line of new quality built, energy efficient homes with "lifestyle" Floorplan layouts and 21st century technology features that will simply amaze, while meeting the needs of today's busy families.
HOUSING MARKET INDICATORS
- $8000 HOME BUYER TAX CREDIT FOR 2009
- COLLIN COUNTY HOUSING SALES JANUARY 2009 TO FEBRUARY 2009
- MORTGAGE RATES AT 40 YEAR + LOWS
- SEEING LIGHT AT THE END OF THE HOUSING CRISIS TUNNEL
- Obama Home Buyer Tax Credit Extension until 4/30/2010
- Tarp fund expiration and interest rate increase
- Stock Market recovery
The professional team at Askins Realty Group, McKinney, TX, will be happy to answer any questions you may have regarding McKinney and surrounding area real estate. Find out how you can save thousands with our Texas Best Buyer Rebate. Please email or call (972) 529-2394 Local Office.
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